Right now talking that much about how the Swedish book market will look like in the future . And especially eboksmarknaden. But in order to move us to where we need to take a number of steps along the way. Development is a gradual process and if we look at the lots, the conclusion can be totally crazy. Therefore, I think this time only speculate about the coming year.
Let's start with certainty in the U.S.
In the U.S. it is estimated that Amazon's e-reader Kindle 2 will sell up to a million copies this year alone, partly thanks to a recent price cut of $ 60 down to $ 299. U.S. residents Fredrik Wass confirmed in a blog post: "Here in San Francisco, I see people with a Kindle in your hand almost every time I travel by train or bus." Still stands eboksförsäljningen for less than 1% of the total U.S. book market , but that figure will rise whole time.
American trends and innovations are usually quite easily and quickly moved over to Europe. The Kindle case, however, such a development is not very obvious, in the current situation. Amazon would be understood in the Kindle on the European market , but recently split, for example, a basic introduction to Germany because Amazon did not agree with the German mobile operators. Kindle is wholly dependent on the automatic and built to stay connected to a mobile network (via Amazon's special Whispernet ) and fill down the books you want. Therefore, it is both unattractive and tricky - plus illegal - to buy a U.S. Kindle outside the U.S..
Will the Kindle to Sweden?
I have no idea how Amazon looks at the possible introduction of the Kindle in Sweden. Perhaps there are plans and perhaps discuss it all already with the Swedish mobile operators. But guess Amazon focuses primarily on major European markets than the Swedish one, as the French, Spanish, and probably new tests on the German. In addition, the Sweden market is rather limited as long as it's just about e-books available from Amazon.
Why am I talking as much about the Kindle if they may not even want to enter the Swedish market? Well, just as an example of how development can suddenly pick up when a big player enters a bubbling market and really get the grip on it. Kindle is certainly not the best, hottest and most reader-friendly e-reader on the market, but by the simple köprutinen and low book prices (usually $ 9.99 for new books), Amazon has created an easy to use product that solves many problems for readers, while not cause much trouble. And the range is amazing - over 300 000 books, magazines and newspapers can be purchased through the Kindle store on Amazon's site. The fact that Amazon has succeeded in involving the American publishers of this is certainly due in large part to the e-books are locked to the Kindle format and therefore difficult to spread further.
What needs to happen in Sweden
If the same thing would happen in Sweden, our eboksmarknad probably get off. Let's set a goal: What if 10 000 titles in Swedish - mostly news - was available for a button canine ring each, through any bookstore players online, and what if there remained a pretty good e-book reader for 2000-3000 SEK (or even cheaper!) where you could easily buy and download these books through their account. Then I do think that we in Sweden would see people with an e-reader by the hand quite often when we went by train or bus.
How far from such a development are we in Sweden?
- The range of e-books. Eboksföretaget Elib currently has nearly 2000 Swedish titles for purchase, from both large and small publishers. Among the major publishers during the past six months has released most of their boknyheter also as e-books are Collins and Piratförlaget. Bonnierförlagen almost absent in the news - but a change is underway.
- We do not have 8000 Swedish titles in order to achieve the above aims. - The price of e-books. Today does a newly released ebook from Collins 160-170 SEK buying through Adlibris, which is about 10-20 SEK lower than the paper version. Older titles will cost about 90 kr. This is not an unusual price point among publishers. Pirate Publisher's new e-book cost of Adlibris 99 kr and older titles price is lowered to around 40 kr when they are issued in paperback.
- More publishers need to follow Pirate Publisher's example for us to reach the goal. - Readers of a few hundred dollars. Price is not the problem, which we probably will soon. And the cheapest plates are already in the price range. Accessibility is the thing - it's still difficult to buy an e-reader in Sweden.
- Someone needs across the board to begin selling e-readers in Sweden, but points 1 and 2 must also be implemented for it to have an impact. - The ready availability. To buy an eBook today, you enter in one of the ten nätåterförsäljarna as Elib cooperates. If you know which book you are looking for, it's easy to find until it slightly more difficult to know which format to choose and pretty easy to pay for itself. If you do not know which book you want to help dealers sides not to much to the purchaser the right - it is simply not selling them.
- Eboksbutikerna online must be simplified and become more easily navigable, while they have to attract impulse purchases.
We are a good distance from the target is. But development can go very quickly if the publishing companies embark on this. A wimpy attitude will not lead anywhere. We can not believe that by only going half way on any of the points - or skip any point entirely - can reach a thriving market in the U.S..
The eternal question of technique
Eboksförsäljningen in Sweden have been to the converted and those who do not see technology as an obstacle. Technology issues have been important. Information on how to read an eBook has been a part of köprutinen.
We need to stop information about these things. Nothing with e-books may be perceived as difficult. Just push a button and download what you want, and so, the money on one's account. The moment there is material in the computer / e-reader / mobile phone and just start reading.
In order to be able to stop technical information must be understood in the technical inconvenience to be eliminated. The new eboksformatet ePub is a step along the way. Elibs new CEO Johan Greiff have here an interesting task to tackle. Simply make the ebook and eboksförsäljningen market premium. I no longer want to hear about file formats in terms of e-books. Same thing with copy protection or watermarking - none of these technical myskopyskogrejerna to add a bar to the buyer and he / she should not even be aware that they exist.
What will happen in the future?
As early as this autumn, it can happen to a lot of things on eboksfronten.
- The range. Bonnierförlagen has announced that this fall will have at least a thousand titles digitized. And by extension, the entire back bar available. During the spring, has seen to it that they have digital rights to a variety of books, largely backlist titles they no longer had rights to. The approach has been criticized from both the Writers' Association and author of print, but they have been supported by the Publishers' Association. As in, among other things Piratförlaget think they give out eboksversionen of new titles simultaneously on paper. Other large publishers such as Collins and Nature & Culture, is planning major ebokssatsningar.
- With several thousand additional titles for purchase, we begin to approach the aforementioned goals. - Prize. How much should an eBook cost? I think that prices will start to drop down to one hundred patch soon. Taking same payment for eboksversionen as the paper version is no longer valid. Interesting comments about this in an interview in the Swedish Bookstore . The argument is not so much the costs that publishers do not have to eboksversionen - the printing of a book only costs 10-20 € / ex - the point is to find a level that is inherent to a digital product. The contents, which text is the same, but the reader's relationship to the book is another when not in physical form. With a sufficiently low price, one can also expect an increasing number of impulse purchases, like myself buying way too many applications for my iPhone even though I then barely use them. But they're so cheap.
- Rate This issue will be the easiest thing to solve. The goal one hundred patches for a novelty, we will reach soon. - Locking plates. Läsplattornas entrance on the Swedish market, I have difficult to predict. In view of Bonnier's big bet on e-books right now, they have no solution at once, which you can sense an interview in Dagens Nyheter recently. It does not appear to involve an investment in a single e-reader but rather to create conditions for a lucrative Swedish läsplattemarknad.
- If the lock plates on a wide front so are the publishers ebokssatsning to no avail. But somehow I think that Bonnier will fix this - that they may well do if they're going to be the market leader in e-books. - The ready availability. To Bonnierförlagen makes a big bet on e-books must also have the effect that they see on sale. How can nätbokhandlarna make the purchase easier? Not least Bonnier owned Adlibris. Will the physical bookstores keep up with this race? Will eboksköpen be made directly in the ebokläsaren (as in Kindle)? And as for ease of access, it's not just locking plates that are eligible. On an iPhone, you can, for example, install the application Stanza , an incredibly smooth eboksbutik. So far, there are, with few exceptions, no Swedish eBooks in Stanza. But it's probably just a matter of time. And it will not Stanza to bring up the safe up any other ebook reader for iPhone that includes a Swedish eboksbutik.
- Here, it can either be a huge war about how books are sold or there is a single actor with a brilliant solution takes much of the market. However not want to publishers and authors get into the U.S. situation , where the Amazon with his power, in principle, the governing pricing altogether.
Who will control the development?
Apparently I put great emphasis on Bonnierförlagen ebokssatsning - the amount of e-books as the market suddenly expanded with the need to significantly change. Bonnierförlagen Feel free to take a battering ram.
Piratförlaget is prepared. Essentially all our publications from the ten years we have existed on sale in eboksversioner (over 150 titles). Recently, we cut the prices on our news and we apply the long-active pricing that reduces prices when paper books will be published in paperback. And we are ready to experiment further in order to help shape the future eboksmarknadens conditions. Piratförlaget started the Swedish eboksmarknaden for almost nine years ago and unless Bonnier strategies reflect our thoughts on the Swedish ebokmarknadens development, we are not afraid to rush it or control it in a different direction.
I would like to see the copy protection, DRM, disappears and is replaced with watermarking, everything to make it easier for buyers. But as I said before, this is a pure business matter, and certainly nothing to be kneaded too much. We find a good solution for those involved and so we're talking not so much about it. We need to eliminate the technical stamp of e-books. The focus must instead be put on the market side and show how easy it is to buy e-books.
I eboksansvarig on Piratförlaget - and it should damn well be a really interesting and fun year!
So welcome to join the discussion, here we talk about it here. Please comment - criticize things that sounds crazy and praise things that feels right. I need your help for this to be really good. Note however that this time we primarily stick to the development in the coming year / years. I am fully aware that eboksmarknaden will serve substantially different in ten years, but that we save for another post.
/ Mattias Boström
kommentarer… läs dem nedan eller lägg till en } {13 comments ... read them below or add one }
Svært wise og informative about large og et utfordrende theme. In Norway you we omtrent the same situasjon that afterwards, so it can være useful on SPRE diskusjonen over Landegren Sene og dele experience inspires. An important research kjell you the Norwegian bokavtalen og fixed prices selv said, for price element you utvilsomt important for Kindle suksessen. We have også momsfritak on papirbøkene in Norway, mens it is uavklart if we can get tilsvarende for ebøkene, og da, we have a feeding in tillegg. Jeg, the crotch part of Disse tingene on my blog, blant annet dette on Kindle: http://gnf-blog.blogspot.com/2009/03/kronikk-i-dagbladet-pa-verdens-bokdag.html
Bjarne: Thank you! I have read your article from 2007 now. I'm very fond of your division in the seven theses - and at least the first six theses applies well even in Sweden. What is perhaps fascinates me most is that the article is two years old. It might as well have been able to be written today. But there is also something that is symptomatic of eboksmarknaden - we've been stamping for almost the same spot for almost a decade. And it is only now, when we can look to developments in the U.S. really has taken a giant step forward, as we in publishing actually begin to believe in eboksmarknaden themselves. We have cried "wolf! wolf "so many times that we are tired. But now we wake to life again and take out our visions and arguments, and they're as good today - while being more realistic.
The copy protection is more important than the publishers want to believe. DRM and other forms of "protection" is just asking for trouble for the legitimate buyers. Those pirates will always find a way to crack the protection and post unprotected copies for downloading. Therefore it is better to abolish DRM altogether. Possibly, one could imagine Social DRM, that is, watermarking, which does not "destroy" the product in the same way. Although it does however complicate the sale.
But I hope the publishers soon realized, and that we can put e-book avalanche in motion here in Sweden. It will certainly mean more sales of books and perhaps even a greater book reading!
I also wonder if a large part of e-books will be read on cell phones, e-book reader software for the iPhone and other smartphones. Just for those who want to read on the way to and from work etc?
Sölve: I completely agree with you on both points.
DRM must be eliminated, simply because it causes problems for users. Anything that impedes the reading once you have paid for the book, I am opposed.
I have an iPhone and even though I have not yet read any full ebook on it so I have at least begun. And you soon get used format - it's such a smooth machine and I like to collect more activities to it.
Hello!
Very interesting reading! But you embellish what's up a little when you describe the rest of the book industry and desire to change. See Lasse Winkler's story in SvB.
Besides, I'm a little surprised that you think that the Kindle is the e-reader that will dominate the market. I'm not at all convinced. Amazon's way of locking up the user so that only books from Amazon that you can read does not hold. In addition, they pulled the back an e-book recently. Straight from the customers' e-readers while they were sleeping. They have a part to prove, even after Bezos (which is a pretty damn nice guy) halfhearted apology.
The future, I think instead in products Plastic Logic. And on open transparent solutions. But I do not think it is the Swedish publishers who will be peace in the country with this. They're already too late. Was not Piratförlaget to launch audio books in the spring on the card with a USB-stick as the customer purchases at the bookstore? Does not exactly modern. Or?
The market we will see e-books are based on publishers' backlist and authors who place their texts via CC. Without publishers. Find out why.
There are already 130 million works under CC. It will be the dominant form even in Swedish literature in 10 years. And publishers do not understand that today there is no reason to believe that they will do it tomorrow either. Or?
Niclas: Thanks for your comments! They put his finger on several important issues.
I think the industry is willing to change if the publishers can see a profit in it. If you do not, then you want enough time stick with the old as long as possible. But Google Books Agreement has also led many publishers have had a fire in the pants to review their digital rights - and when you're at it you might as well take a grip on a market that will soon stand there and knock on the door. On the basis of what it looks like the U.S. - and that's what country we usually turn our gaze on when we'll find out how it will look like in Sweden about a year.
I was a little fuzzy in the Kindle. I do not think in the long run it is the one who will lead the market, unless Amazon improves significantly and do something about their customer relationships. What I want to display on the Kindle, the example is how a market can suddenly explode. And there's the Kindle / Amazon an extremely important part. I think the Kindle will continue to be the market leader in the U.S. over the next year - and mind you, further, did not extend my prediction of the post.
I really hope that it develops far much better than Kindle e-readers, or I will personally not be so eager to put most of my bokinköpspengar on e-books. Plastic Logic type is probably a step in the right direction. But I know very little about the latest innovations to dare me to conjecture about the lock plates will look like in as little as five years.
I do not think that the Swedish book publishers is too late. There are no trains have gone away from them. Rather, there has been no willingness to invest money in a market where not all the conditions existed. What's the point of launching lots of books if we can not get a sensible sale of e-readers? All the ingredients must come together. We who have been involved in trying to sell e-books for almost a decade now have learned that it does not work on any element (such as e-readers) are taken.
As for Book2go (audiobooks on memory card with USB adapter) it's yet another format in a wide range of "medium format" that we've tested in recent years. It was introduced a year ago, around the time that we went down to hit up MP3 books on CDs. Pirate Publisher's focus on audio books takes place on several levels simultaneously: conventional classic boxes of CDs (always including an MP3 disc in the bargain), between different formats (eg Book2go) and audio books for download. In the last category includes, for example, the streaming variants Storytel have. In some years the physical products that have reduced a lot in sales, but until then we offer different variants in a number of segments. Audiobook market, I think on the whole will experience a fast moving to digital marketing than for e-books. Mostly because bokupplevelsen for the listener is the same, whether you listen to a CD or if you bought an audio book for download.
I will familiarize myself a little better in Creative Commons, but you are probably right in that non-intermediary-sales will increase. However, I think - as I've written about in a previous post in this blog - to publishers' role will continue to be important. I'll think some more before I dare to predict what the situation will look like in ten years. There will be a blog post about it. Do you know about the American publishers have begun to take CC into consideration?
Hello Mattias!
Thanks for your feedback. They gave answers to those wonderings I had and put in my last comment.
We fully agree that there are audio books that will take off first. And I am convinced that it will provide both short story and companion meadow a big upswing. Just like in Charles Dickens' time. In a sense, the revival of the literary form. CD's stories were first published in the magazine and then became the book. In addition, the iPhone will be a dominant player in that market. It is on today. It is välrdens most widely e-boksläsare/lyssnare.
As for the publishers' role, I think they will lose influence. We are moving rapidly toward a post-digital society where there is an abundance of cultural expressions. Common to these cultural expressions is that they flow seamlessly between digital and analog. So one of the foundations will be different types of functional selection techniques. The only selection instrument available today (in principle) for books publishers publishing. The situation will change quickly and rather dramatically.
Since I am fully aware that publishing is to make money. And that you do not change business model or issuance policy, but the belief that the new generating money.
But, and this is important, I think the writers want much better paid for their work in the future than it mite publishers will share today. Intermediaries will largely disappear. And thus increases the author's income. And today does not need to send an envelope with a * record * with a manuscript to a publisher in the hopes of getting published.
Publishing is done with a button at home on your computer. Marketing takes time, but not very much money. And the relationship between the author and his readers can be developed and deepened in many ways. It is truly an exciting time we live in. And the author role will change so much that the question is if we do not have to find a new concept in short for those who choose to publish themselves online.
Finally, the CC and the Americans. There is a lively debate on these issues of course. But most often associated with copyright industry and tail of the lawyers.
CC is a modified copyright that gives author rights. They are left not to such a publisher. CC comes in a variety of combinations. And Google itself (Nicklas Lindblad on Forester Seminar last summer) think the majority of all cultural production will take place in the CC in 10 years. Combined with the fully developed service areas for example authors such, the current publisher of the structure is largely superfluous.
Thanks again for your interesting comments!
Niclas: Interesting discussion this! As for writers opportunities to reach out as we have already seen the development to the necessity of publishing houses has decreased. By nätpublicering and print-on-demand there are now ways to reach out to more than the immediate circle of friends. To then turn this into a business is not as easy and we are not there quite yet. Of course there are some outstanding exceptions, especially if we're peeking in the U.S. market, but it is still difficult to get the same impact as an established publishing company can be part of creating.
The mite that publishers will share today is not nearly as small as many seem to think. Looking at the costs that are at the publication of a book that gives publishers a grant of the amounts of loss-making projects and they are fully aware of this. That loss-making projects for publishers - authors are always protected with a guarantee fund. But publishers do it anyway in order to build authorship and thus eventually be able to get back their invested money. And once you reach that position - that is a bestselling author - then it may well be that the publisher at least earn as much as the author (a gain which will still cover all fixed costs of course). But why should they not be allowed to do that? They've been through and done the program - and frankly, the author has himself written on the contract and approved the distribution. I myself am's most fond of Pirated Publisher's payment model (fifty-fifty), but a nice royalty procedure can also work well.
But if one looks at the mite get from the book's total cost out of the bookstore, then I understand that as a writer can imagine a little puzzled. But the middlemen are not intermediaries unless they get paid. And publisher / author may choose not to sell the book through the bookstore. Then it will of course be cheaper. But unfortunately, it will get harder to reach. So every intermediary offering some sort of service and it has to pay.
If the writers want more money than it is today, there will be problems. Possibly, the replacement percentage of total price to increase, but as the prices will drop in the digital name of development, then the total will probably be a little bit the same. Unless you can increase the number of copies sold. But then I just had to reach through the clutter. Through marketing - and it can be done yourself if you think you are good at it and you have time, or by a publishing company / institution who then want to be paid for that service.
No matter how we change the situation, it will in future be a need for some sort of intermediary and co-producers. And even if the network opens up a host of free work we always volunteer so it works only to a certain point - it will be too many who need their services.
Just for clarification on copyright and CC. The copyright is transferred often to publishers, it stays with the author. By contrast, authors and publishers agree that the publisher should have utgivningsrätten of a work.
Hello again!
Agree. Interesting discussion. Saw your post in Ravenna, too. I'll be back during the week. Been on Lyrkonferens since last Friday and am now waiting for the final concert. 150 LYRIST from around the world in the orchestra. Totalhäftigt!
Thanks Mattias. Very initiated! Amazon has succeeded in the domestic market. Clearly! Huge bokutbud. Simple news services. Nothing dribbel of settings, configurations, etc. using dedicated mobile network. Are you supposed to attract the "ordinary" book reader, there must be some technical obstacles. It will be like turning on the radio about. Then the music. Payment mechanisms are ok but there should be a cinch. The firm Riidoo AB (www.riidoo.com) was started about a year ago by us a couple of friends in Lund mobile telecom ghetto with this very purpose. Make e-books easy to find, buy and read. We have prototypes in place for easy eboksshop (www.riidoo.se / shop) and let's sell slabs of different makes. Has established contacts with Bookeen, Not Read Plastic Logic m.fl.Dock disrupted the process as you rightly say of the poor supply and the exorbitant prices from the publishers. Without literature, no business. We are passionate about, however, for this and will be in the race. Blogs on http://contextelebooks.blogspot.com to get some general machinery opinion on how we want to read books in the future. I believe in e-readers but most of all the services behind them. Simple, fun and affordable, it should be. And we'll try to go on about bokläsandets mind all the time, whatever it is. How do we develop it electronically? I hope the collective in the blogosphere will help us with.
Will follow your blog with interest.
Welcome Anders
Andrew: A little belated response here (has been gone a few weeks). Interestingly, as your plans on eboksmarknaden. I come down to Lund for a while (October probably), so maybe we can see and talk a bit about common interests.
/ Mattias
Hello Mattias
Would like to meet and talk about books. Please let me know on contextel@yahoo.se I will call you.
Did a blog post about the new Collins ownership in Elib last night. Things begin to take shape, it feels like.
http://contextelebooks.blogspot.com
Anders: I'm very happy that Collins is now a partner in Elib. This has Elib received the common business function needed to be really strong on eboksmarknaden.
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